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Current US Economy vs. Belize.
(Feb 2007)
This is a post to the Belize Culture list, in response to an
article about the big Canterell oil field in Mexico drying up.
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We see now that NAFTA was a sweetheart deal for Mexico, to encourage them to continue to import huge quantities of Oil & Gas to the oil-hungry US. The deal cost the US millions of jobs, and has created an economic "crisis" of alarming proportions in the US. As a reaction, US lower-class workers are up in arms about the "alien invasion" of illegals into the US. [Sidebar: This is silly. They are complaining about the Arizona border, when millions stream into the US at Brownsville, McAllen, etc. We are busy building a trans-US highway to facilitate the traffic!] The problem is not that aliens are taking the good jobs -- the problem is THE GOOD JOBS ARE GONE -- along with the middle class American families.
Anyway, that big puddle of oil was a HUGE economic advantage for Mexico, and they've squandered it in exchange for NAFTA. In a "planned economy" (whatever that is) Mexico could have built up their own industry in competition with China and other Eastern companies, kept their oil, and gradually improved their lot. But the real bad guys (NEVER mentioned in the Mass Media) are the Giant Multinational Corporations who don't give a shit for the working man or the economy of the countries they exploit. The fact is, NAFTA made it easy for them to offload thousands of jobs from overpriced American workers to much more appreciative workers south of the border.
Background: Thru out much of the last half of the 20th Century, wages continued to rise. The Auto Unions pushed wages up until workers were getting $30 an hour for a job on an assembly line that could have been done by a trained ape, or <gasp> a robot. So, that's what the Japs did -- built robots that would do the job without coffee breaks and fringe benefits -- and lower production costs by as much as 50%. Meanwhile, the media was doing its job, creating demand for more expensive toys and bigger houses. The whole thing is a house of cards, and most of it has already fallen.
That's why I don't endorse the "imminent economic collapse" or "dollar crash" that these guys talk about. The economy in western Oklahoma crashed 30 or 40 or 50 years ago, when the oil wells "dried up" [i.e. became economically unprofitable] and those oil-related jobs went away. The crash was not sudden, and people elsewhere didn't even notice. Today, two out of three high schools in that part of the country are closed, because the boomers went away, and had their kids somewhere else. (The high schools are all Senior Centers, now!) So, it was a "crash" but nobody noticed.
Similar crashes have occurred all over the US. They call them "pockets of unemployment" but it's a big, deep pocket. The big manufacturing states like Michigan, Ohio, Indiana,
Pennsylvania have basically lost their middle class. Wives are working to make ends meet because Daddy cant get a "decent job" -- one that pays $20-30 an hour like they used to make.
Do you get the picture? The problem is much larger than just the Federal Reserve, or the Oil Companies, or the Mass Media, or any other single thing that we can target with a quick fix. The "crash" has been going on for forty years, and the detonation is softened by the fact that the US has incredible resources and could cushion the fall by buying oil with dollars. That's what the wars are about. The dollar won't crash because of bankers or debt, it will "crash" because the Euro becomes more negotiable and the oil producers switch to it. That's what the wars are about, if you look closely to the hold-outs like Germany and Russia.
China is the big player, however. And the US is China's biggest customer. And biggest creditor. They won't dump their dollars, and I don't think anyone else matters! [Sidebar: Just remember, the debt is mostly in US T-bills, and is an _investment_ for the players. As long as they can use US dollars for anything, including buying up everything in sight in the US, they will value them accordingly.] Just watch them start buying America with those dollars. And spending them in Belize!! (Better start being nicer to the "Chinee" -- they represent your own best hope!
So, what's the future for Belize -- so dependent upon the US dollar? Well, the solution is pretty simple for our little Jewel, but it will take some dedication and hard work by Belizeans.
First, we have to establish our own place in the world, with Third Wave technology that exploits technology. (In the Third Wave, technology levels the playing field for the little guys.)
Second, we have to get our house in order. That entails:
1. Punishing some bad guys who have stolen a half billion dollars from the country
2. Establishing rules of transparency and accountability for everyone who manages the country's business.
3. Electing some leaders who will look out for the country FIRST instead of feathering their own nest.
Simple? Maybe not. It's usually accomplished by an armed revolution. Maybe Belize is "civilized" enuf to accomplish it peacefully. Maybe not.
We shall see.
sr. ric
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